Bitcoin has not been having the most convincing price run, but ardents remain confident of its long-term prospects. Plan B has said that Bitcoin’s reaching new highs is a sure bet, and will be thanks to staunch holders.
Plan B Gives Two Cents On Bitcoin’s Future
The pseudonymous analyst credited with creating the Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model opined that while Bitcoin’s price can go down, its realized capitalization has been holding steady.
At $466 billion, Bitcoin’s realized cap is currently near its all-time high value he pointed out. Based on the trend of the metric, he stated that it will lead Bitcoin to a next all-time high price. He also projects that at $100k per Bitcoin, the realized cap will be about $750 billion.
#bitcoin price can go down, but realized cap not so much, thanks to hodlers. In fact realized cap (average cost price of all 19M BTC / 80M utxo) is near ATH at $466B. I have no doubt that realized cap will lead BTC to next price ATH. I expect $100K BTC at ~$750B realized cap. pic.twitter.com/O0M87KwUyR
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) April 8, 2022
Significantly, the realized cap metric values the Bitcoin market based on the price every Bitcoin in circulation last moved at. This is as opposed to market cap that just multiplies the total number of Bitcoins in by its current price.
This distinction means that realized cap takes into reduces the impact of coins that may be lost or in the hands of long-term holders on the valuation model. The fact that it is trending near ATH could indicate that long-term holders are indeed dictating the direction of the market.
Plan B’s latest analysis is coming after he opined that if the S2F model is still in play, it means the current price of Bitcoin is a 55% discount from what it should be.
Meanwhile, a CryptoQuant analyst also recently pointed out the bullish pattern Bitcoin’s realized cap was positing.
Bitcoin price continues to be swayed by macro events
Bitcoin is trading at around $42,70p, down 2.29% in the last 24 hours at the time of writing. The current price marks a 7.96% drop in the weekly timeframe.
While it has been noted that a sell the news pattern may be in play in the market because of the ongoing Bitcoin 2022 Conference, several other factors have played key roles in swaying the price of Bitcoin.
One of these has been the raging war in Ukraine that has affected a lot of markets. Similarly, regulatory attention from the EU and other major countries has been keeping crypto market sentiments in check.
The market pattern has led Peter Brandt, a lionized trader, to speculate that Bitcoin may not see a significant price increase until at least May 2024.